Summer Trade Goes Cold: Britain’s Post-COVID Recovery Wavers Amid Cashflow Crunch

Footfall down. Payments delayed. Insolvencies rising. Behind the scenes of a British summer turning sour for retailers, restaurateurs, gym owners and landlords alike.

It is late June, and by any normal standard the tills of Britain should be ringing. The sun is out. The school term is winding down. Outdoor seating is full. The economy, if not exactly buoyant, is supposedly “resilient.” And yet: the atmosphere across the UK’s real-world economy feels anything but vibrant.

In retail, hospitality, fitness, and commercial property, a familiar chorus is being heard from business owners and suppliers alike:Footfall is down, margins are tight, and dependable income—especially timely payments—is becoming worryingly rare.

“People are back out,” says the director of a local retail chain in southern England. “But they’re not buying in the same way. It’s hesitant and reactive.”

A Crisis in Slow Motion

The visible economy—busy restaurants, crowded gyms, and decent weekend footfall—disguises a far murkier picture beneath the surface. Despite positive GDP projections and a buoyant stock market, small and mid-sized businesses across the country are reporting the slowest June in recent memory.

What’s most concerning is not the volume of trade—it’s the quality of it.

Retail: Discounting into Danger

According to the British Retail Consortium, footfall across UK high streets fell by 2.1% in the final week of June alone. That followed a May in which year-on-year sales remained flat, despite multiple bank holidays and a temporary heatwave.

“We’re seeing promotional fatigue,” says one buying director at a department store group. “Customers are only responding to 30–50% off now. If we start the summer sale early, what’s left for July?”

Value-focused chains like Primark, B&M, and Aldi continue to perform. But mid-tier fashion, lifestyle, and homeware retailers—many with legacy leases and stock-heavy supply chains—are suffering the most.

There’s also a fundamental shift in consumer behaviour. “Customers used to buy in advance—summer clothes in May, Christmas in October. Now, they wait. They want certainty. They want the sun to come out first. And that means lost momentum.”

Hospitality: Full Tables, Empty Margins

Walk into most restaurants on a Saturday night and you’d be forgiven for assuming everything’s fine. Diners chat over cocktails. Tables are booked. Plates are full. But speak to the owners, and the story quickly turns bleak.

“We’re getting bodies through the door,” says the owner of a popular gastropub in Wiltshire. “But they’re sharing starters, skipping dessert, ordering tap water. It’s the illusion of busyness. The margins are gone.”

Monday to Thursday has become commercially unviable for many casual dining venues. Even Friday lunch trade—a staple in city centres—has dipped since hybrid working became embedded.

Meanwhile, costs have not receded. Labour remains expensive and short. Energy bills, while stabilised, are still significantly higher than 2019. Ingredient costs are unpredictable, especially for imported produce.

A 2025 report from UKHospitality found that 41% of venues are operating at “critical financial stress” levels. Several large restaurant groups are rumoured to be preparing CVA proposals in the next quarter.

Gyms: Fighting for Survival on the Margins

Once seen as resilient to economic cycles, the fitness sector is facing its hardest test since the 2020 lockdowns.

A senior figure at a national franchise chain confirmed that June had seen the highest volume of membership freezes since January 2021. In one site in the commuter town of Guildford, cancellations were up 21% month-on-month.

“It’s not just that people are struggling,” said one gym operator. “It’s that the gym now feels discretionary again. When every penny counts, it goes.”

The growth of low-cost alternatives—outdoor bootcamps, fitness apps, hybrid memberships—has added to the challenge. But it’s not just member churn. Many gym businesses are still carrying debt from bounce-back loans, expansion leases, and failed post-COVID refurbishments.

Even successful sites are operating on razor-thin margins. One operator put it bluntly:

“If we miss one rent payment, one insurance claim, or one VAT bill—it’s game over.”

Commercial Property: Rent Day Dread

The cracks in the operating model are now filtering up to landlords. With July quarter rent demands due this week, many commercial property managers are preparing for a fresh wave of missed payments, partial deposits, and urgent renegotiations.

A director at a regional property fund said they’d received five separate “without prejudice” requests in the past fortnight—from coffee shops, yoga studios, and local gyms. Some are threatening administration. Others are simply pre-empting cashflow crunches.

“We’re seeing far more proactive distress,” he said. “Businesses know they’re in trouble and want to open discussions. The problem is, if we say yes to one, we say yes to them all.”

Landlords tied to institutional finance—especially those with REIT status or bank-backed lending—have little room to manoeuvre.

The Insolvency Tipping Point

According to figures from The Insolvency Service, corporate insolvencies rose 9.3% year-on-year in May and are expected to rise again in Q3.

Insolvency professionals report a marked increase in early-stage enquiries from directors “exploring options” before defaults hit. “It’s not a wave—it’s a slow bleed,” says one London-based practitioner. “The real spike may come in Q4, when deferred tax liabilities, rent arrears, and seasonal cash stress all hit at once.”

A more troubling trend is the rise in phoenix companies—businesses that are voluntarily liquidated with debts unpaid, only for directors to reappear under a new banner days later.

Company Voluntary Arrangements (CVAs), once a last resort, are being used tactically by chains to exit lease obligations or write down creditor claims.

The Abrdn Fallout: Charitable Independence Undone?

Even the financial services sector isn’t immune from controversy.

In a development that has unsettled think tanks and philanthropic organisations, FTSE 250 asset manager Abrdn has removed the entire board of its charity arm, the Financial Fairness Trust, prompting criticism from former trustees and partner institutions.

The charity, originally set up to fund research into cost-of-living, pensions, and inequality, had over £3.6 million in active grant commitments. Its sudden restructuring—triggered without public explanation—has been described by insiders as “destabilising” at a time when public economic policy needs more independence, not less.

A spokesperson for the charity said they were “deeply concerned” about the impact on ongoing research, some of which directly informs government White Papers and Treasury consultations.

Conclusion: The Quiet Collapse

What’s unfolding across Britain this summer is not a recession in the traditional sense. There are no headlines screaming crisis. There is no sudden crash. No bailouts.

But there is a slow, grinding collapse in commercial confidence—a world where payments are late, trade is light, costs are high, and creditors are quiet. A world where no one wants to blink first.

In this climate, the strongest businesses won’t be the loudest or the fastest. They’ll be the ones that think long-term, protect their core, and resist the lure of short-lived trends and vanity metrics.

They’ll be defined by resilience—the ability to withstand volatility, cut cleanly when needed, and distinguish substance from hype. They’ll adapt quickly, manage leanly, and make hard decisions early—not because it’s easy, but because it’s necessary.

Because in the slow burn of 2025, it’s not the bold who thrive. It’s the balanced.